Polling Data Isn’t Accurate

Many polls in the US right now are reporting a very close race between Presidential candidates John McCain and Barack Obama.  The way these polls are conducted by private corporations and media outlets like Gallup, Rasmussen, CNN/Time Warner, and MSNBC.  (visit this website for the most and most recent polling results) The method in which these companies collect polling data is not available to the public for proprietary reasons. 

However, we do know that these pollsters collect data largely by using computers to dial telephone numbers.  After the computer has dialed a random number, then a researcher asks the person on the other line what they think about the election.  They ask questions like: “Are you a registered voter?” “Are you supporting McCain?” Etc. 

But there are many drawbacks to this method.  As recently as 2003, many households have abandoned the trusty landline in favor of a cell phone.  Instead of one phone number representing an entire household–where the man of the house usually answers the researchers’ questions–phone numbers represent individuals. 

Also, computers are not allowed to dial cell phone numbers as per FCC regulations.  Therefore, fewer and fewer people are in the pool of possible respondents.  Cell phone-only households have increased from 3% in 2003 all the way to 16% in 2008 according to MediaMark Research.  What does this mean?

It means that pollsters are asking the right questions to a non-random sample.  A whopping 16% of the population is immediately excluded from the sample because they no longer have a landline–myself included.  So who are the people without a landline?

Young people.  Women.  Travellers.  People with little access to relaible telephone service–AKA poor people.  And who do these people tend to favor in the Presidential election?

Barack Obama.

So if we assume that the polling data that comes out puts the Presidential race at a dead heat, then which way will the people actually vote?  My bet is that Barack Obama will have a surprisingly easy victory in November because people are not expecting an extra 16% of the population to lean toward the Democrat.  I’m not saying the ALL of the 16% will vote Democrat, but it is safe to assume that a majority of them will.

Let’s all get out there and vote.  Lets prove the country wrong!  This is NOT a dead heat.  We Americans will CHANGE WASHINGTON by electing Barack Obama the next President of United States of America.

Source:

NY Times