Pew Research and MSNBC Verify My Theory

Read this article from MSNBC.com to understand why excluding cell phone data for national polls is inaccurate.  Good job me!

Richard Zuercher

Polling Data Isn’t Accurate

Many polls in the US right now are reporting a very close race between Presidential candidates John McCain and Barack Obama.  The way these polls are conducted by private corporations and media outlets like Gallup, Rasmussen, CNN/Time Warner, and MSNBC.  (visit this website for the most and most recent polling results) The method in which these companies collect polling data is not available to the public for proprietary reasons. 

However, we do know that these pollsters collect data largely by using computers to dial telephone numbers.  After the computer has dialed a random number, then a researcher asks the person on the other line what they think about the election.  They ask questions like: “Are you a registered voter?” “Are you supporting McCain?” Etc. 

But there are many drawbacks to this method.  As recently as 2003, many households have abandoned the trusty landline in favor of a cell phone.  Instead of one phone number representing an entire household–where the man of the house usually answers the researchers’ questions–phone numbers represent individuals. 

Also, computers are not allowed to dial cell phone numbers as per FCC regulations.  Therefore, fewer and fewer people are in the pool of possible respondents.  Cell phone-only households have increased from 3% in 2003 all the way to 16% in 2008 according to MediaMark Research.  What does this mean?

It means that pollsters are asking the right questions to a non-random sample.  A whopping 16% of the population is immediately excluded from the sample because they no longer have a landline–myself included.  So who are the people without a landline?

Young people.  Women.  Travellers.  People with little access to relaible telephone service–AKA poor people.  And who do these people tend to favor in the Presidential election?

Barack Obama.

So if we assume that the polling data that comes out puts the Presidential race at a dead heat, then which way will the people actually vote?  My bet is that Barack Obama will have a surprisingly easy victory in November because people are not expecting an extra 16% of the population to lean toward the Democrat.  I’m not saying the ALL of the 16% will vote Democrat, but it is safe to assume that a majority of them will.

Let’s all get out there and vote.  Lets prove the country wrong!  This is NOT a dead heat.  We Americans will CHANGE WASHINGTON by electing Barack Obama the next President of United States of America.

Source:

NY Times

Where’s John?

Look at this picture of President Bush signing the Federal Funding Accountability and Transparency Act.  Where is John McCain in this picture?

 

Zuercher

A Good idea from Governor Palin!

Palin finally had a great idea!  She wants the federal government to disclose all of its spending–including insurance payments, grants, loans and contract spending.   Wouldn’t it be cool if they had a website for all of this stuff.   What would the government call it…how about USASpending.gov?  That sounds AMAZING. 

What?

No.  Really!

Ok, she was just a little too late.  It seems as though USASpending.gov is already up and working.  Where did this come from?  It’s a government website that discloses its spending.  Well that’s a great idea.  I wonder who got this awesome thing done.

Who would do such a thing?

Who has the experience of being a “Mover and Shaker” of Washington?

Tom Coburn, John McCain and Barack Obama. 

Federal Funding Accountability and Transparency Act

Thanks but no thanks governor.

Read the article from cnn.com about how the governor is going around presenting this as her own idea. What gets me is that Palin is SO inept at Washington politics that she doesn’t even know that these things are getting done by responsible and experienced leaders.  What I don’t understand is why McCain isn’t on Obama’s ticket. 

Zuercher

CEO Pay

Dear readers.  Please read this article from cnn.com about how much CEOs and Corporate board members will make for running their companies into the ground. 

Am I the onlyone here that thinks that these people should be put in jail for what they are doing?  I am a shareholder of many large companies because I am responsible and have a mutual fund.  My mutual fund buys stocks in other companies and holds them while their values increase (hopefully). 

However, the boards and the CEOs of these companies make millions and millions of dollars for running these companies.  I may make a couple of hundred or even a thousand dollars for my modest investment.  That’s ok.  I’m all right with making a marginal return because I have a marginal investment.  But what about these people who are “managing” my money.  They have ZERO at stake.  They are not going to starve.  They make millions of dollars for NOT BEING STUPID.  I wish I could make that much money.  Maybe I’m the one who is stupid for thinking that a multi-billion dollar corporation will try to make sound financial decisions. 

Is there someone I can sue?  I really want to hold these CEOsfinancially and personally responsiblefor voting themselves these huge bonuses while I am the one who loses money.  Don’t the shareholders come first? 

Zuercher

Honor Killings

Please read this article from MSNBC.com about the “honor killings” of two teenage girls who wanted to choose their own husbands.  The penalty for going against tribal tradition–buried alive.

Coach Z

Issues vs. Politics

An open letter to the American people:

As many of my readers might have figured out, I believe that the Republican Party has completely abandoned the interests of the American people.  Republicans only need the American people to vote for them and after the American people are sufficiently frightened to vote for Republicans, then Republicans need the American people to pay for their expensive endeavors. Nothing more.

Expensive endeavors will include:

1.) The costly War on Terror- I’m not saying that I enjoy terrorism, but I am saying that we do not need to spend $10 billion a month on fighting them in the cities and mountains of the Middle East and Afghanistan. Instead of spending that kind of money trying to kill people who are trying to kill us for trying to kill them, if we just spent $1 billion a month (just 1/10th the cost of the war in Iraq) on humanitarian aid around the world we would be immediately safer and have a better international standing. Who would want to destroy America if we are the provider of their aid? If we can show our unconditional love-even for our enemies-then we would be the true marshals of peace in the world.

2.) The costly health care crisis- The American people all have to go it alone against the insurance companies and the medical industry. Insurance companies do not have to worry about collective bargaining when individuals have to negotiate by themselves for insurance plans. Doctors are going to become even more expensive as a result of more and more choose to leave family practice in search of more lucrative specialties. If the American people were to collectively bargain with the insurance companies and add the 40 million Americans to the policy who don’t even have insurance, then we would be able to save billions on prescription drugs, preventative health care, and long-term treatments. Republicans vote against SCHIP (State Children’s Health Insurance Programs). CHILDREN! THEY HAVE ABANDONED THE CHILDREN!

3.) The costly bail-outs of large multi-billion dollar banks- The Republicans did not bat an eye over bailing out Bear-Sterns (an investment company that doesn’t produce ANYTHING other than fees for its shareholders), but when it comes to the average working American who lost his or her home over the last few years, the Republicans blame them for making a bad choice for buying a home with a “risky” loan. WHEN WAS IT A BAD CHOICE TO BUY A HOME?!?!? Aren’t the American people supposed to invest in their own property? Aren’t the American people supposed to stop renting and start putting their money to work? Why not help these brave home-owners? It’s all they have!

4.) The costly Social Security issue- Republicans want to privatize social security. On face, it doesn’t seem to be a bad idea. Instead of paying the government to hold onto your money until you retire, you can choose to invest it in a mutual fund or IRA for your own retirement. This doesn’t seem like a bad idea… Until you realize that the very same companies that do the investing are the very same companies that irresponsible invest your money in “risky” ventures, declare bankruptcy (hoping that the government will bail them out), then grant multi-million dollar bonus checks to the oh-so-responsible board of directors who have just run the company into the ground. So the Republicans have no problem giving blank checks to big business, even when they prove that it was their own fault for their downfall AND after they made their executives even richer! There isn’t a trickle down to the average worker, it’s a mass flood down to just the CEOs.

If the Republicans are so eager to give your tax dollars to big business for squandering away their own profits through shaky practices, don’t you think your money would be safer in the hands of responsible Democrats instead?  At least we know they give the money to the right people instead of trusting millionaires who give themselves big bonuses while the company pensions are lost in bankruptcy.

And what about the issue of values in America? Republicans seem to always say, “keep the government out of the private sector. If we just take away government restrictions then the economy will be just fine.” How fast did the Republicans jetison their “values” of limited government when they NATIONALIZED two huge mortgage banks? It seems that Republican “values” disappear when there is a corporate interest at stake.

To all of you “social conservatives” out there: How long do you think the Republicans will hold on to your “values” when a corporate interest conflicts?

Republicans say that the people should be responsible for being generous as individuals–not the government. They say government is the problem–not the solution.  Why, then, do Republicans not want the government to set the example of generosity?  Why don’t Republicans promote corporations being generous to their workers? If they really do promote generosity, why is it that Republicans ALWAYS vote against raising the minimum wage, ALWAYS vote against requirements for medical coverage, ALWAYS vote against requirements for vacation time? They vote in lock-step with corporate interests. Nothing more.

The truth is that the Republican Party is NOT to be trusted. They are liars. They are crooks. They want power and wealth for themselves. They do not want to see the American people benefit from any government policy-except for “defense” policy (which is NO different than the Democrats).

If you are a Republican and you made it this far in my angry letter. Thank you. This felt really good. If you are a Republican and you think that I have crossed the line by grouping ALL of the Republicans together, then please tell me which group you would belong to if you weren’t Republican. Please tell me what your platform actually is. Ranging from “Fiscal Conservative-Social Liberal” (Arnold Schwarzenegger), “Fiscal Conservative-Social Conservative” (Ron Paul), “Fiscal Liberal-Social Conservative” (George W. Bush, Ronald Reagan), and “Fiscal Liberal-Social Liberal” (ok, there aren’t any of those in the Republican party), I just don’t know who you are anymore.

Thanks,

Richard Zuercher

NOW

I fear that we are entering the darkest times in American History.  We made it through Salem, outlasted slavery, marched through the Trail of Tears, imprisoned thousands of American citizens of Japanese origin, endured the blunder of Vietnam, ignored the Rwandan genocide, survived unspeakable horrors of terrorism, imperialized Iraq, and are in the midst of unspeakable environmental destruction.

But now is the time when the people of this country choose if we are going to be an oppressor of the world or its savoir.

It would be ridiculous to criticize a totalitarian regime for providing health care for all its citizens.  It would be unspeakable to define a tyrannical government as one that would decrease pollution and lead the world toward sustainable human survival.  It would be blasphemous to describe a dictatorship as a government that provides universal access to a world class education no matter the cost.

On the other hand, no one describes a Democracy as a system that supports government spying on its citizens without due process.  It would be insane to call a place where thousands of people die of preventable diseases the “land of the free.”  A dastardly deed it would be to call a country that invades other countries without provocation a beacon of liberty.

The Constitution is the basis of our democracy.  Not the Magna Carta.  Not the Code of Hammurabi.  Not the Mayflower Charter.  Not the Declaration of Independence.  And NOT the Bible. It’s the Constitution and the Constitution alone.  We are welcome to interpret the meaning of the Constitution.  We are welcome to change the Constitution only when there is an overwhelming majority of people in support of it.

We have changed our Constitution only 27 times.  The first ten happened at the same time: we call it the Bill of Rights.  They expand and protect our rights from government intervention.  They allow and support the freedom of the people and the press.

The 11^th Amendment clarified the Constitution (Article III Section 2) regarding lawsuits from citizens against the state.

The 12^th Amendment changed the way the President and Vice President were elected.

The 13^th Amendment banned slavery.

The 14^th Amendment expanded rights further to include citizenship, equal protection, and due process.

The 15^th Amendment expanded the right to vote to include all men of legal age.

The 16^th Amendment allowed Congress to levy more taxes.

The 17^th Amendment changed the way Senators were elected.

The 18^th Amendment prohibited the sale, distribution or manufacture of alcohol.  This was the first amendment that overtly decreased the rights of the people.

The 19^th Amendment expanded the right to vote to include all citizens of legal age.

The 20^th Amendment clarified the way officials were elected and established a line of Presidential succession.

The 21^st Amendment repealed the provisions of the 18^th Amendment.

The 22^nd Amendment changed how many times a person could be elected President to only twice.

The 23^rd Amendment expanded the representation of the District of Columbia.

The 24^th Amendment expanded the citizens’ right to vote.

The 25^th Amendment clarified Presidential succession.

The 26^th Amendment expanded the right to vote to include 18 years or older.

The 27^th Amendment clarified how members of the House of Representatives and Senators were paid.

The only time the Constitution has decreased the freedoms of the people, the people replied by removing that amendment.  The people will not tolerate any decrease in freedom by the government and our Constitution is a living record of the expansion of freedom for all people.

How could a person call themselves patriotic when they want to change the Constitution to decrease the rights of citizens on the basis of their sexual orientation?

How could a person be patriotic if they criticize the media–an entire entity that exercises the 1^st Amendment of the freedom of the press?   Even if the press is wrong, our Constitution protects their right to publish research.  Our constitution protects their right to muckrake.  Our Constitution protects their right to express the opinions of the people and other interests.

How could these people hijack the country like they have?

You have let them.  Let’s take the country back and elect Barack Hussein Obama as our representative to expand the rights of the people and move our country away from totalitarianism toward true freedom and democracy!